Bitcoin (BTC) is down 2% in the last 24hours, trading at $81,698 after US inflation came in hot and raised the odds of another Fed rate hike. Compounding the decline is a cascade of long liquidations ($63.17 million in the past day) and a break below the $82,000 – $83,000 support zone. Institutions have also pulled away, with Bitcoin ETF flows turning negative since late September.
Despite the recent pullback, technical analysis now shows Bitcoin could be preparing for a $93,000 hit.
As seen below, Bitcoin has been trading in an ascending channel on the 4-hour chart since August. Should it bounce off the lower boundary of $80,000, BTC could rally to the mid-range zone of $88,000. At this point, maintaining positive momentum would pave the way for another move up to the top of the channel at $93,000.
Supporting this theory are the parallels seen between this year’s chart and that of 2023. In the latter, Bitcoin surged 40% shortly after the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossed above the 200-day SMA.
Even more, the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio has been on a steady decline this past week. This is evidence that whales are actively moving their BTC away from exchanges to longer-term storage addresses, or rather hodling.
Next prices to watch for
The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) chart shows the highest resistance at the $83,000 – $84,000 zone, where BTC previously exchanged hands at the highest rate.
Thereafter, resistance between $87,000 and $95,000 is quite balanced, with $89,000 being the price to watch for. A break above this and sustained upward momentum, would mean movement towards the next resistance at the $104,000 price.
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